Republican Senator Mike Lee of Utah has warned conservatives that Texas’ U.S. Senate race is slipping away after recent polling shows Democratic candidate James Talarico gaining ground over incumbent Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Three polls indicate Talarico leading Paxton, with a fourth showing a tie—while three others favor the Republican candidate. The average margin across these surveys reveals Talarico holding a narrow 0.7% advantage.
Lee has urged Republicans to support Paxton, stating: “We can’t have a senator from Texas who thinks ‘God is nonbinary.’” Paxton recently defeated Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff after securing Donald Trump’s endorsement.
The Decision Desk election analysis group noted Talarico’s polling performance resembles that of Beto O’Rourke during his 2018 bid to unseat Ted Cruz—a race O’Rourke lost. Paxton has criticized Talarico over allegations of residency rule violations from his 2022 state representative campaign, asserting: “James Talarico has proven he has zero regard for Texans and the rule of law. He’s been lying to voters and shamelessly committing election fraud to hold onto power.” The Talarico campaign attributed discrepancies to processing delays.
Political analyst Stu Burguiere observed that many Texans are unlikely to support a candidate advocating reparations and holding such views on God, especially amid relentless advertising campaigns. Prediction markets previously showed Paxton as an 80% favorite but have dropped to 54%. Burguiere noted Talarico’s fundraising efforts could pose a significant hurdle for the Republican candidate.
Democrats currently hold slim prospects of winning the U.S. Senate in the midterms, but a victory in Texas would substantially bolster their position.
