For over two decades working in politics and advising more than 50 campaigns, I’ve learned one truth: Never tell voters that what they are experiencing isn’t real.
With the midterm elections eight weeks away, too many campaigns risk this mistake. Washington focuses on foreign policy, economic indicators, and political strategy — but voters are looking at receipts, and those receipts tell a different story.
The national average for diesel reached a record $5.97 per gallon in the week ending September 7. That matters far beyond truck stops: farmers, contractors, freight carriers, and delivery networks all depend on diesel fuel. When costs rise, they move through the supply chain — fuel becomes part of the grocery bill, restaurant bill, construction cost, shipping, and nearly everything Americans buy. The consumer ultimately pays.
The line between foreign policy and affordability is not always clean. Wars, sanctions, and instability abroad can raise oil prices and transportation costs at home. But voters experience these events through household economics: the price on the pump, supermarket receipt, and checking account balance.
Politicians love macroeconomics. Voters live in microeconomics. A candidate can talk about GDP, job creation, or the stock market — but those figures do not erase what a family pays for groceries, housing, insurance, and energy. The voter’s checking account gets the final vote.
As much as it pains me to admit it, Democrat strategist James Carville got at least one thing right during Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign: “It’s the economy, stupid.” More than three decades later, Republicans would be wise to remember this lesson.
A July Pew Research Center survey found that voters most wanted congressional candidates to discuss economic issues — especially prices and affordability. In another companion survey, 66% said they were very concerned about food and consumer goods prices, 64% about housing costs, and 56% about gasoline prices.
Foreign policy and national security still matter. China, Russia, Iran, and America’s place in the world cannot be dismissed. No single issue will decide every race — but elections are personal, and voters usually encounter national policy through its effect on daily life.
A parent in a supermarket aisle is not conducting a geopolitical analysis while comparing grocery prices. A driver filling the family SUV watches the numbers on the pump. Both are asking: How much is this going to cost me? They think about mortgages, electric bills, car payments, insurance, groceries, gas, child care, and credit cards — wondering why an income that once felt comfortable now seems barely sufficient. That’s affordability, and it will decide November.
Economic frustration helped return Donald Trump to the White House. Republicans cannot assume this issue automatically works in their favor now. They cannot tell families struggling with grocery and fuel bills that everything is fine or insist that distant events matter more than household finances.
Democrats should not celebrate either. Economic frustration does not automatically translate into support for Democratic policies. Voters will judge which candidates understand their financial situation and offer credible solutions. That gives both parties an opportunity — but neither a guaranteed victory.
Campaigns succeed when candidates understand what voters are feeling. They fail when consultants persuade candidates that voters should care about something else. After roughly 50 campaigns, I have found that voters can forgive difficult circumstances. What they will not forgive is being told those circumstances don’t exist.
The question in November will not be whether Washington can produce statistics showing parts of the economy are strong. It will be whether Americans believe they can afford their lives. When they enter the voting booth, they will not be carrying economic charts — they will be carrying grocery receipts.
Dr. Michael J. Schwartz is an entrepreneur, laboratory director, media host, and political consultant who has advised more than 50 campaigns. A former police officer and longtime business owner, he has also worked in medicine, communications training, and philanthropy. He is the author of “Fauci’s Fiction: The Book on Covid.”
